Will Political Changes Boost Southern African Diamond Output?

Will Political Changes Boost Southern African Diamond Output?

Since mid-2017, there have been significant changes in Southern Africa that could bring about changes to the continent's diamond output. After years of mismanagement, last February saw the resignation of South African President Jacob Zuma.

His downfall was the third in a trio of removals from office in Africa that have given encouragement to the diamond industry on the continent that produces 65% of the world's rough diamonds. Preceding Zuma's departure came the removal of Zimbabwe's former President Robert Mugabe after almost four decades in office. And before that, the election of a new president in Angola – Joao Lourenco – who replaced Jose Eduardo dos Santos, the former head of state who had ruled Angola with an iron fist for 38 years.

Zuma is facing a range of charges, with the country's Supreme Court of Appeal last year ruling he should face 18 counts of corruption, fraud, racketeering and money laundering. Under his rule, there was a reported weakening of important institutions, such as the South African Revenue Service, the National Prosecuting Authority and law enforcement bodies, due to political meddling for private interests.

There is now a turnaround in investor confidence now that Zuma is out. Given the country's vast mineral wealth, foreign investors are exactly what it needs to unlock that wealth and create much needed jobs.

Meanwhile, in Angola – one of the leading global diamond producers, with output of just over 9 million carats in 2016 according to the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme –new President Lourenco is taking apart the business empire of the dos Santos family, who include the children of Jose Eduardo dos Santos.

Lourenco has pledged to fight corruption and end monopolies, kicking out the heads and directors of major corporations who have been milking those firms and the state for so long, particularly the dos Santos clan. That is good news for the people of Angola where more than a third of its population of 27 million gets by on less than $2 a day, according to the World Bank.

Has a new, more promising era started? "No one will be above the law... I will be the only president," Lourenco said. He has replaced the heads of the country's main companies, institutions and sectors – from the mighty central bank, oil industry, diamonds and the media, as well as the police and intelligence services as well as Antonio Carlos Sumbula, the head of state-owned diamond firm Endiama.

Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe, towards the end of last year, diamonds were seen as playing a large part in the downfall of Zimbabwe's ex-President Robert Mugabe. Is new president Emmerson Mnangagwa an improvement over his long-time mentor, Mugabe? Mnangagwa has said repeatedly that his country

is now open for business and is promising more transparency in a bid to attract overseas investors and to create much-needed jobs.

Diamonds may have been behind the collapse of the Mugabe regime. Media reports claimed that events at the Marange diamond mines were the reason for China’s increasing concerns about the Mugabe government's indigenization policy, which required 51 percent local ownership of foreign businesses. Two Chinese companies, Anjin and Jinan, began operations in 2012 with 51 percent of shares owned by the Zimbabwe government.

However, the regime integrated them into the state-owned Zimbabwe Consolidated Diamond Company (ZCDC) in 2015, which apparently led to a great deal of behind-the-scenes protests by the Chinese government. Since China imports almost one-third of Zimbabwe's exports, the Peking government has a not inconsiderable say in the decisions made in Zimbabwe.

The buffeting that Chinese investments in Zimbabwe's diamond mines took also hit the bank accounts of senior Zimbabwean military figures who reportedly cooperated with the firms under the leadership of General Constantine Chiwenga – the head of the armed forces. Reports say that a 30- percent share of Anjin Investments is allegedly controlled by the Zimbabwean Defense Forces through a subsidiary, and that senior officers associated with Mugabe have become wealthy men due to the diamond business.

The changes in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Angola certainly give cause for optimism. Not just for the long-suffering peoples of those countries, but also across the continent, and elsewhere in the world. It is still too soon to say whether the new leaders are going to bring in authentic and widespread change. But there is plenty of reason to be upbeat.